LJL / PIT WALL · DECISIONS ACROSS FUTURES
Would you make the same call again?
Early pace, sustained pace and track position. Compare the same decision under three conditions before committing to a single future.
01 / PUT THE ASSUMPTIONS ON THE TABLE
Make a call. Then change the conditions.
A new teaching exercise using this site’s linear time-gap model. The two tyre plans are fictional response profiles, not real compounds or teams. Staying out is an equal-pace, zero-second baseline.
| Plan | Favourable conditionsTime delta / regret | Traffic after the stopTime delta / regret | Faster loss of advantageTime delta / regret | Maximum regret |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay out | 0.00 s8.27 s | 0.00 s0.00 s | 0.00 s0.00 s | 8.27 s |
| Stop for early paceLowest maximum regret (ties possible) | -8.27 s0.00 s | +2.73 s2.73 s | +3.28 s3.28 s | 3.28 s |
| Stop for sustained pace | -4.31 s3.96 s | +0.09 s0.09 s | +0.31 s0.31 s | 3.96 s |
Dominated means another plan is no worse in every selected condition and strictly better in at least one.
YOUR CHOICE / Stop for early pace
Maximum regret: 3.28 seconds.
Regret is the gap to the best plan within the same condition. Comparing each plan’s maximum regret shows how much it relies on a particular favourable future.
This covers only the selected conditions. No probabilities means no expected return or win rate; removing a condition changes the decision’s scope.
Unfold one condition, lap by lap.
- Stay out
- Stop for early pace
- Stop for sustained pace
Lap zero includes the complete pit loss; subsequent laps accumulate pace gains and traffic costs. Crossing zero indicates less elapsed time within this model.
Inspect every assumption and the calculation
Recovery over n laps = n × (initial pace advantage − traffic cost) + advantage trend × n × (n−1) ÷ 2. Final delta = pit loss − recovery.
| Condition | Plan | Initial advantage s/lap | Advantage change per lap | Traffic cost s/lap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourable conditions | Stop for early pace | 1.60 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| Favourable conditions | Stop for sustained pace | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Traffic after the stop | Stop for early pace | 1.60 | -0.03 | 0.50 |
| Traffic after the stop | Stop for sustained pace | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Faster loss of advantage | Stop for early pace | 1.60 | -0.08 | 0.00 |
| Faster loss of advantage | Stop for sustained pace | 1.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
The linear advantage may turn negative late in a stint. Rival responses, overtaking, weather, safety cars and tyre failures are not simulated; differences between tyre plans come entirely from the table.
The original desk reports the gap to the rival from a 3-second initial deficit. Its finish value is therefore 3 seconds higher than this page’s delta against staying out.
HORIZON SCAN / LOOK ACROSS THE HORIZON
How many laps would change the call?
Hold pit loss and selected conditions fixed, then compare 5–40 laps remaining. Highlighted numbers identify plans with the lowest maximum regret at that horizon; all ties remain visible.
Fixed pit loss: 20 seconds; conditions: Favourable conditions / Traffic after the stop / Faster loss of advantage
- 1Stay out
- 2Stop for early pace
- 3Stop for sustained pace
The pit wall now uses 22 laps remaining and still selects “Stop for early pace”. This grid changes the horizon only.
Where the result changes
- 5—18 lapsStay out
- 19—22 lapsStop for early pace
- 23—40 lapsStop for sustained pace
Read all 36 numerical comparisons
| Laps left | Stay out | Stop for early pace | Stop for sustained pace | Best under this criterion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.00 ✓ | 14.80 | 15.90 | Stay out |
| 6 | 0.00 ✓ | 13.85 | 15.05 | Stay out |
| 7 | 0.00 ✓ | 12.93 | 14.19 | Stay out |
| 8 | 0.00 ✓ | 12.04 | 13.32 | Stay out |
| 9 | 0.00 ✓ | 11.18 | 12.44 | Stay out |
| 10 | 0.00 ✓ | 10.35 | 11.55 | Stay out |
| 11 | 0.00 ✓ | 9.55 | 10.65 | Stay out |
| 12 | 0.00 ✓ | 8.78 | 9.74 | Stay out |
| 13 | 0.00 ✓ | 8.04 | 8.82 | Stay out |
| 14 | 0.00 ✓ | 7.33 | 7.89 | Stay out |
| 15 | 0.85 ✓ | 6.65 | 6.95 | Stay out |
| 16 | 2.00 ✓ | 6.00 | 6.00 | Stay out |
| 17 | 3.12 ✓ | 5.38 | 5.04 | Stay out |
| 18 | 4.21 ✓ | 4.79 | 4.68 | Stay out |
| 19 | 5.27 | 4.23 ✓ | 4.56 | Stop for early pace |
| 20 | 6.30 | 3.70 ✓ | 4.40 | Stop for early pace |
| 21 | 7.30 | 3.20 ✓ | 4.20 | Stop for early pace |
| 22 | 8.27 | 3.28 ✓ | 3.96 | Stop for early pace |
| 23 | 9.21 | 3.91 | 3.68 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 24 | 10.12 | 4.92 | 3.36 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 25 | 11.00 | 6.00 | 3.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 26 | 11.85 | 7.15 | 2.60 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 27 | 12.67 | 8.37 | 2.16 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 28 | 13.46 | 9.66 | 1.68 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 29 | 14.22 | 11.02 | 1.16 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 30 | 14.95 | 12.45 | 0.60 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 31 | 15.65 | 13.95 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 32 | 16.96 | 15.52 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 33 | 18.28 | 17.16 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 34 | 19.61 | 18.87 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 35 | 20.95 | 20.65 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 36 | 22.30 | 22.50 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 37 | 23.66 | 24.42 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 38 | 25.03 | 26.41 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 39 | 26.41 | 28.47 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
| 40 | 27.80 | 30.60 | 0.00 ✓ | Stop for sustained pace |
These ranges compare horizons under fixed assumptions; they are not event probabilities. Removing conditions narrows the comparison. With one condition, the best plan can have zero regret without being risk-free in conditions that were excluded.
KEEP THE CALL / LEAVE A VERSION OF THE DECISION
Keep the settings beside the reasoning.
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READ THE DECISION / BACK FROM THE RESULT
After the race, the answer looks easier.
I like revisiting what a team knew when it made the call, as well as who eventually won. A decision that loses may still have been defensible; a successful result can still deserve a closer look at its risks.
This desk separates that question into plausible conditions and the response of each plan. Minimax regret is one comparison rule. A real team also weighs points objectives, tyre inventory, attack versus defence, and changing driver feedback.
The same habit travels back to projects. An earlier finish depends on which dependency chain changes; a notebook depends on what was recorded. Before comparing, put the timing, conditions and missing information back into view.
AFTER READING / THE CONVERSATION
What would you add?
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